February 20, 2006
The Mideast Monitor Makes Its Debut
The first edition of Mideast Monitor, edited by Gary C. Gambill , "a country analyst for Freedom House" and "editor of Middle East Intelligence Bulletin from 1999 to 2004," made its debut in February 2006.
The Monitor, according to publication's website, "is a monthly nonprofit publication devoted to specialized analysis of political developments, issues, and actors shaping the Middle East today."
Posted by Munir Umrani at 08:58 AM | Comments (0)
February 18, 2006
What Conundrum? Hamas Won Fair and Square
The Belgravia Dispatch's Gregory Djerejian opines in a February 17, 2006 post on "The Hamas Conundrum" that, No one in Washington DC officialdom appeared to predict the political earthquake that occurred in the West Bank and Gaza now several weeks back. The conventional wisdom was that Hamas was going to put in a good show, maybe creeping into the mid-40s% (which they actually did, but more on why that analysis missed the point below), but that the Fatah old guard would carry the day. But the CW was wrong, of course, as we all now know.
Djerejian explains why they were wrong. The question is will Israel and the U.S. let the results stand or attempt to overthrow Hamas. Hopefully, common sense will prevail and policy makers will remember the 1991 National Assembly elections in Algeria and what happened after the military cancelled them when it became obvious that so-called Islamist would win. A vicious civil war ensued.
Posted by Munir Umrani at 05:56 PM | Comments (0)
Cobban Sees "Some Good Sense From Tom Friedman
In a February 17, 2006 commentary, Helena Cobban, proprietor of Just World News, said "New York Times uber-columnist Tom Friedman has a pretty good column in today's paper. Basically he's urging everyone in Israel and the US (perhaps especially the US) not to get completely hung up on the nature of Hamas rhetoric, but to focus on the movement's deeds instead."
"A very good point!" she writes.
Cobban quotes Friedman as saying: "[I]t is critical that Israel, the U.S., and the Palestinians not get themselves up in a tree right now over words. There is nothing Hamas could say today that would reassure Israelis, but there is a lot it could do on the ground that would have a huge impact over time. That-- for now--is where the test should be."
For more, please see "Some good sense from Tom Friedman."
Posted by Munir Umrani at 05:40 PM | Comments (0)
Informed Comment Revisited
Today I visited Informed Comment, which presents University of Michigan History Professor Juan Cole's "Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion," for the first time in weeks. He's still offering insightful news and commentary. I'm sure he's still offending critics who think he should shill for the Bush Administration.
Posted by Munir Umrani at 05:30 PM | Comments (0)
December 27, 2005
New Days for Lebanese Politics and Diplomacy
Last week, Anton Efendi at Across the Bay offered great analysis on the political and diplomatic situation involving Lebanon and Syria. See "Big Pimping" and "Those Days Are Gone." I also found "Throwback to the Good Ol' Days" very informative.
Posted by Munir Umrani at 09:16 AM | Comments (0)
November 15, 2005
Are Most Syrians Said Apolitical?
"The Damascus government believes that the only way the Syrians will firmly reject the impact of UN Prosecutor Detlev Mehlis's report and Security Council Resolution 1636 is if it creates a timely, thorough internal reform program," notes Sami Moubayed in a report from the Syrian capital published in the November 10-16, 2005 issue of Al-Ahram (The Pyramid).
Mr. Moubayed said, "Judging from the Iraqi precedent, the Syrian government realized that a population that is dissatisfied will not defend its government in times of crisis.
"But the fact is that the majority of Syrians are dissatisfied not because of the lack of political freedoms or because of Syria's current standing in the international community," he added. "On the contrary, most Syrians today are rather apolitical. Rather they are dissatisfied for reasons that merely cosmetic change will not rectify."
See a "Time for change" for Mr. Moubayed's reasons why Syrians are dissatisfied.
Posted by Munir Umrani at 11:33 PM | Comments (0)
November 12, 2005
Helena Cobban on 'Jordan and Regional Geopolitics
On November 11, 2005, Helena Cobban at Just World News published an insightful article on Jordan headlined "Jordan and regional geopolitics." While I'm fairly informed on Western colonial history in what is now called the Middle East, I found Cobban's article quite revealing.
Posted by Munir Umrani at 03:18 PM | Comments (0)
November 01, 2005
How Will Syria Respond to Resolution 1636?
In a November 1, 2005 editorial, The Daily Star of Lebanon opined that: Through Resolution 1636, Syria has now been put on official notice that it must cooperate with the international probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The resolution adopted by the Security Council on Monday was eerily reminiscent of Resolution 1441, which offered Saddam Hussein "a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations" and threatened "serious consequences" if these demands were not met. It was this resolution, which was adopted unanimously by the Security Council in November 2002, that laid the groundwork for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
The publication said, "If there was any room for doubt before, the Syrians, who served on the Security Council in 2002 and voted in favor of Resolution 1441, ought to now be keenly aware of the gravity of their situation."
Please see "Syria has one last opportunity to read the writing on the wall" for the entire editorial. For Syria's response, see "Syria Labels U.N Resolution Biased." Also see "Syria angrily denies Security Council claim."
"UN Tells Syria to Cooperate" also offers an interesting perspective.
Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:26 AM | Comments (0)
October 30, 2005
Will Bashar Assad Have to Fight His Family to Survive?
In an October 31, 2005 special for The Daily Star of Lebanon, veteran Middle East analyst Patrick Seale of Britain asserts that:The political storm caused by the Mehlis report into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has, paradoxically, provided Syria's President Bashar Assad with a golden opportunity. For the first time since he came to power in 2000, he has a unique chance to impose his authority on rival power centers and emerge as the real ruler of Syria.
In their different ways, both the international community and his own public are urging him to act. They are encouraging him to carry out a "corrective movement" against undisciplined barons of his regime, including men close to him, similar to the palace coup which brought his late father, Hafez Assad, to power in 1970.Mr. Seale added: "The choice before Assad is clear: either continue to claim that Syria is innocent of the murder of Hariri and that the charges in the Mehlis report are unsound and politically motivated or recognize that mistakes have been made and carry out a purge of the top security officials named in the report."
For more of Mr. Seale's analysis, please read "To survive, Bashar Assad will have to fight his family."
Posted by Munir Umrani at 04:09 PM | Comments (0)
